We’re in love with TV here at Media Predict. That’s why we’re putting up some great prizes for our next contest . . . all about the Upfronts!
What are the Upfronts? It’s the time of year when TV execs decide which shows survive — and which shows get the axe.
So you’ll be able to call all the cancellations and renewals, as well as special markets for season finales, American Idol — and maybe even if Jack will end up with Kate on “LOST.”
Posted by admin on March 1, 2010AND YOU THOUGHT the holiday shopping season came earlier every year. Yep folks, we’re already launching our first Oscar market because – well, it’s fun. And this year promises to be more interesting than ever, as new rules changes will allow for ten nominees for Best Picture, instead of the usual five. By expanding the number surely The Academy wanted to reach out to commercial hits that so often get snubbed in February. The broader category, for example, might have allowed “The Dark Knight” to snag a nomination last year – and “Up” may well be the beneficiary this year. All that said, our first Oscar guinea pig would probably have snagged a nomination in any year, as it looks the part to a tee. Starring multiple-winner Hillary Swank, this historical biography (with stunning airborne visuals) is tailor-made for hardware, so much so that the main risk seems to be backlash from voters who feel like they’re being bullied into a nod. That factor actually may keep “Amelia” from winning the top prize, but as far as nominations go, we’ll definitely recommend a buy. Stay tuned as the real beneficiaries of the new rules – journalists and betting parlors worldwide – follow the nomination process down to the wire.
Posted by admin on October 19, 2009SEE THE MARKETS: GOOGLE, APPLE, FACEBOOK, ANYONE
Rumors have been swirling so fiercely over a potential acquisition of Twitter that betting exchanges and prediction markets worldwide are opening odds on its future. (At press time, Media Predict forecasts a 25% chance of acquisition before Q3.)
As we saw recently, TechCrunch has openly argued that the company should stay independent and “spread its wings.” But those with a Hollywood point of view are asking a different question: “What would The Jonas Brothers do?”
After all, Twitter’s founders have more in common with the Jonas boys than you would think.
It’s easy to forget that Twitter is at the concluding phases of a phenomenal rise. Spinning off from the struggling Odeo and surviving countless outages, it grew and picked up an unofficial corporate sponsor in CNN – whose eager Rick Sanchez couldn’t do enough to plug it, so they called in Ted Turner and Ashton Kutcher to mop up.
Could the buzz be more intense than it is right now? Probably not. There’s no steady term yet for it (tech-sation?), but we all know that web destinations can suddenly emulate flavor-of-the month entertainment acts or consumer goods. In these moments their technical product is less like Apple’s (a good buy at any time), and more like the Tamagotchi (an item everyone wants right now). After all, the public always needs something to toy with in the internet. This was as true for the early web game “Gay or Eurotrash?” as it was for MySpace, YouTube, and then Facebook. Twitter is the latest to get the call.
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STARRING THE UNDISPUTED King of Summer, Christian Bale, and with the former King of Summer, Johnny Depp, “Public Enemies” will catch a lot of people’s eyes. The question is whether it will actually get butts on seats. Based on the true story of charismatic bank robber John Dillinger, played by Depp, the trailer offers an “Untouchables” vibe from the first moment (down to the trench coats and hats). Bale, single-minded as always, plays the FBI agent who takes down the bad man. It sounds promising, and we’re psyched to see Michael Mann take the director’s chair, but the trailer doesn’t quite live up to the headlines. The firing Tommy-guns and racing model-Ts seem a little too familiar, and, after all, we already know how the story ends. Since there are no special effects to necessitate big-screen viewing, one could easily envision audiences waiting for the Blu-ray come Thanksgiving. Despite its plumb opening date, we fear that “Public Enemies” will disappoint.
Posted by admin on May 25, 2009Play the summer movie challenge! The makers of “Wolverine” got an unpleasant shock when a working print was leaked to the internet two weeks ago. According to one study, the video has already been downloaded one million times. But, folks, this is Hollywood – where there are usually surprises. Tracking reports are now suggesting that buzz has only grown for the film, as a result of free press and positive word-of-mouth from people who have seen it. You’re holding steady at $90 million in a weekend in which “Iron Man” cleared the century mark last year.
Posted by admin on April 17, 2009IS IT CANCELED, OR NOT? That’s been the question of the week regarding “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.” First EW.com’s Mike Ausiello gave a dead-certain prediction that “TSCC” was on its way out. Insiders shot back that FOX executives were still making up their minds. Enough sources have chimed in with the latter view that we’ll believe that one, for now. (Was Ausiello fed dire news as a way of gauging fan support?) A pathetically small 4.6 million viewers tuned in for the finale – but then again FOX can’t expect miracles on Friday night, and Summer Glau is getting a lot of buzz as an upcoming star anyway. If “Terminator: Salvation” sets the world on fire this summer, perhaps “TSCC” will be back.
INNOVTIVE SERIAL “HARPER’S ISLAND” should have had an easy ride following an episode of “CSI” that drew a whopping 16.7 million viewers. But only 10.2 million stuck around for the premiere, and the show lost viewers during the telecast. The initial falloff speaks to a lack of core interest (if you can’t lure “CSI” fans to a macabre thriller, who can you draw?). The subsequent loss speaks to some shaky writing (which Media Predict would have been happy to forecast, CBS). Moving ahead, this show will be difficult to fix, as it’s probably already in the can. Any re-editing hopefully will emphasize the ultra-attractive cast and the mystery storyline – as opposed to slasher killings, more graphic versions of which we can get in your average “Saw” film. As the plot becomes more complex, drawing in new viewers will be tricky, which is why we expect the last victim here to be the show itself. Sell.
Posted by admin on April 16, 2009“LIFE” ONLY GRADUALLY won us over, and we give it credit for surviving the strike – and a brutal year when most of its sophomore siblings failed. But there’s not a lot to “Life.” To successfully pull off a Loner Drama along the lines of a “House” or a “Mentalist” you need damn good writers. That’s what these shows do: give us characters being smart. “Life” never really had that, and so it combined the Loner Drama with the Serial Drama, going back in time to chronicle the conspiracy behind the lead character’s wrongful imprisonment. Recently the series wrapped up with just an audience of just 4.5 million, not enough to cut it on NBC. We predict no more life for “Life.” 4/12/09.
Posted by admin on April 13, 2009IT’S TOUGH TO SEE THE LOGIC behind releasing this movie in a prime weekend in early May. We’re all for providing balance against the popcorn flick of the week (in this case “Star Trek”). But while “Ghosts of Girlfriends Past” provides a good foil to “Wolverine,” this caper comedy targets the male audience most likely to be caught up in May-Mania. Don’t get us wrong – the trailer wasn’t all-bad, and anything with Donald Faison gets a look from us. Our friends at Cinema Blend give this one a middling score on their Excite-o-meter, and in the end we concur. With poor timing and disappointing revenues, “Next Day Air” will be forgotten as quickly as its title suggests.
Posted by admin on April 13, 2009STRANGE TO THINK of the buzz last summer telling us “Dollhouse” would be one of the major shows of the fall. As with “Fringe,” actual results may vary. At least this time FOX played it safe, eschewing the colossal media blitz it gave to “Fringe” and taking a softly-softly approach, launching “Dollhouse” on Friday night with sci-fi counterpart “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.” It’s a timeslot that only a cult show could thrive in – and cult seems to be what creator Joss Whedon and FOX are going for in this “Buffy”-like action serial. This might be a smart move. There’s no pressure to build big viewership (it’s Friday, folks). And if the show catches on, as “Buffy” did, perhaps FOX can move it to a better night and let the fever spread. But that approach will take time, FOX execs will know, and therefore expect to see “Dollhouse” back for Season Two. Buy.
AS WITH THE SHORT-LIVED “Bionic Woman,” it’s looking as if retro is decidedly not the solution for NBC. Earlier this year a reboot of the “Knight Rider” franchise debuted to reviews so negative you wondered whether the nation’s reviewers, en masse, had all been dumped that week. And while last year’s TV-movie pilot drew a healthy 12 million viewers, this season’s episodes drew an average half as large. NBC promptly reduced this season’s order to 17 episodes, airing the finale on March 4. TV Series Finale mentions hopes of a TV movie to polish things off. Well, if so, it’s a heck of a lot more likely than a renewal. Sell!
WE NOTICED THREE things when we first wrote about “Cupid.” We noticed the prior attempt on ABC, starring Jeremy Piven. We noticed similarities to the series “Eli Stone,” and to The CW’s recent “Valentine.” And then we noticed that all of those shows went down the tubes. This current incarnation seems destined to do the same. According to TV Series Finale, “Cupid” debuted in last place for its timeslot, attracting an average of 7.6 million viewers. And while “Dancing With the Stars” almost single-handedly made “Samantha Who?” into a success, “almost 50% of the people who were watching the ‘Dancing with the Stars’ lead-in decided not to watch ‘Cupid.’ ” Yeowch. Our TVSF friends are predicting an early end – and we recommend following their lead. Sell.
Posted by admin on April 5, 2009TAKING A CUE from “24,” new CBS drama “Harper’s Island” promises to tell a complete story over its season cycle. But instead of the season ending with Jack Bauer again saving the world by dubious means, “Harper’s Island” will resolve a murder mystery by its season-ending 13th episode. The rest is unoriginal but comforting: a) people visit country-house on an island for a wedding, b) people die, indeed one every episode. That makes the show a mix of “Clue” and, well, “Friday the 13th.” In one way, it’s a laudable attempt to bring horror to the small screen. But while niche fans will be pleased, we’re not sure regular folk are hoping to see, as in one example, someone being run through a ship’s propeller. Five episodes? Probably, but this is one big gamble in a tough 10 p.m. slot – and renewal will be another question altogether.
Posted by admin on March 29, 2009