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THE SUMMER TV SEASON is more and more about original cable series, with superb shows from “True Blood” to “Mad Men” stealing the network limelight in recent years. So MP had to get in on the act. But what should we predict? Cancellation markets are out of the question, since the smaller networks will air the ordered episodes no matter what. Viewership numbers can be low without hurting a show’s fortunes (see “Mad Men”). So we decided to cut to the bottom line: will this sucker live? And our first test case, “Nurse Jackie,” looks like a strong bet. Yes, we’ve seen medical dramas before, but Edie Falco will bring a bluntness and edginess missing from the folksy soundtrack of “Grey’s Anatomy.” (Hint: Jackie will dip heavily into the hospital’s drug cabinet.) Add in a doctor with an inappropriate-touch tic, as well as Showtime’s usual brilliance, and this looks like another hit from a network that brings back “Weeds” on the same night. Buy.

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GOING UP AGAINST the formidable “Brüno” in early July, you’d think that “I Love You Beth Cooper” would have something special up its sleeve. Yeah . . . not really. Revisiting the craziest-night-of-my-life teen movie formula – familiar from “Sixteen Candles” to “Superbad” – the trailer says one thing. You can’t get into “Brüno,” kids, so at least you can get some raunchy fun here. In the film, a valedictorian geek confesses his love for Beth Cooper (Hayden Panettiere) smack dab in the middle of his graduation speech. He hits a soft spot, so she attends his party that night as all hell breaks loose – showers are had, towels are dropped, cars are crashed, Ding-Dongs are consumed in pornographic fashion, and a geek’s virginity (maybe!) is lost. None of this goes over well with her Marine boyfriend, who tries to kill people now and then. We see no love for the B-rate “Beth Cooper,” as audiences offer up $12 million and little more.

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WE’VE SAID IT before. While we like to think that kids really like the things we adults like, it just ain’t so. Thus for every “Ratatouille” – with cooking jokes and Parisian skylines to delight every Mom – there are five Pokemon sequels, “Bolt,” and another Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie, all making us wonder what chaos really goes on in those little minds. The “Ice Age” franchise fits the latter category, by our lights. The animation pales in comparison to Pixar’s. The stories don’t make sense. Critics are never impressed. But there is one thing no one can dispute – the last installment debuted to a stupefying $68 million. Given that everyone will have already seen “Up,” parents will be dragged in for “Ice Age 3,” after which we can all scratch our heads together at the $70 million it seems likely to deliver this time around, too. 5/25/09.

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THE PREMISE HERE isn’t bad. First, of course, there’s the comfort element: we get a Loner Drama with a “House”-like charismatic figure, this time the head of a mental ward. Then, there’s the twist: the show goes inside the heads of seriously messed-up people, dramatizing fantasies of, say, invading flying saucers. Sounds decent. But will it be a hit? We have reservations about lead Chris Vance (“Prison Break”), who seems a bit low-key in comparison to charismatic counterparts Simon Baker and Hugh Laurie. But we like the flashes of edginess in the trailer. To cite one example, Vance’s character tells a colleague to have a nice day and leaves, after which she says, following a nice pregnant pause, “Dick.” Humor like that could keep this one from becoming another forgotten Summer serial. But given its relative lack of originality “Mental” will have to introduce some fun insanity to survive.

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MIKE JUDGE BROUGHT an uncharacteristic edge to the surprisingly durable “Beavis and Butthead” and “King of the Hill,” and whether he brings the same comedic mojo to “The Goode Family” will decide this show’s fate. Why? Because without his name attached, this one looks painful. The show depicts a politically correct family who does everything “right,” all the way down to using only hybrid cars to tote their vegan groceries. We have no problem with Judge diving straight into the left-right culture wars, but he also risks turning everyone off in the process – as too-serious lefties refuse to laugh at themselves, and right-wing curmudgeons reach for the remote. There’s a reason why this is premiering in summer, folks. We see things turning bad for “The Goode Family” before the 10-episode mark.

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WHILE “PUBLIC ENEMIES” gets the actual July 4 release, let’s face it – this year Independence Day (and its huge receipts) is all about the return of “Transformers.” Just two years after the first installment of the franchise silenced critics with a $70 million release, Director Michael Bay is back with another go-round with orange fireballs and machines that largely turn into GM cars. Given the “Revenge of the Fallen” subtitle, we expect a darker and edgier “Empire Strikes Back” vibe, (in which the bad guys prevail and set up yet another sequel). From the visually stupefying trailer, we also expect “Transformers 2” to set, perhaps, the highest bar ever for action special effects. It will be big, but the Wednesday release makes predicting tricky. Have fun predicting first-day and five-day receipts.

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WE KNOW the equation. Pixar summer movie = smash hit. For the first time, we’re not sure. “Up” may at long last offer a Pixar movie that neither critics nor audiences love, at least all that much. Why? We don’t see that famous Pixar appeal to kids and parents alike. Where “Ratatouille” had the cooking and “Incredibles” had the dysfunctional family humor, “Up” presents us with … a crotchety old man who rigs balloons to his house and sails to The Land of the Lost. This occurs after (we easily forget) “Ratatouille” only opened to $47 million – nothing to sneeze at, but enough to prove the Pixar name doesn’t have the sure-fire earning power the Chattering Classes think. This said, our friend Katey at Cinema Blend is as bullish as ever after having seen parts of the film. Expect controversy in the Summer Movie Challenge as “Up” hits theaters in the last day of May.

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WE HAD HIGH hopes for “Better Off Ted,” offering both “Arrested Development” favorite Portia de Rossi and a darker, more corporate version of “The Office.” But the elements didn’t gel. Lead Jay Harrington plays an affably indifferent middle-manager – a believable coping strategy, given his job – who oversees the increasingly amoral research efforts of mega-conglomerate Veridian Dynamics. But where “The Office” (like another workplace comedy, “Cheers”) bunches everyone into a claustrophobic and dysfunctional microcosm, the characters of “Ted” are spread out over a massive company. As such, they don’t create a sense of ensemble – and ensembles are the root of all comedy. Kudos to the likeable Andrea Anders, who plays a love interest, along with a generally skilled cast. We hope to see them all again. But with 4.7 million for the latest episode, we don’t think it will be in a second season of “Ted.”

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A BIG PROBLEM with the trailer is, for the first 20 seconds, you actually think this is a dopey comedy (with talk of “Stew” getting the promotion over well-meaning Christine). And it also has Justin Long, Mr. Mac Guy! Then reality sets in: we have another teen horror film in which Hot Chick battles the Other World. Séances and special effects ensue. We know that Sam Raimi cut his teeth on the “Evil Dead” trilogy, but this guy did “Spiderman” – and he should be setting his sights higher than a summer genre flick. As with weekend competitor “Up” we’ll disagree on this one with our Cinema Blend buddies, who have given a 5 on the Excite-o-meter and who also quote a stellar review from Defamer. Tune into the Summer Movie Challenge to see the sparks fly.

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“PRIVILEGED” IS A LIKEABLE show, with a likeable lead in Joanna Garcia. That’s why we didn’t get it when The CW chopped the original order from 22 episodes to 18. We also don’t get it when sources report (according to EW.com) that the show is “definitely in danger.” Of course, The CW might have been disappointed by a show that only pulled 1.7 million viewers for its finale – but network execs also have to take into account the low profile of the network itself. Our recommendation: stick with quality and let the audience grow, rather than aiming for another “Gossip Girl” (which only nets 3 million anyway). We think a solid fanbase will raise enough of a stink to keep this one on the air – but look for Joanna Garcia to move onto to bigger and better after Season 2.