Rumors have been swirling so fiercely over a potential acquisition of Twitter that betting exchanges and prediction markets worldwide are opening odds on its future. (At press time, Media Predict forecasts a 25% chance of acquisition before Q3.)
As we saw recently, TechCrunch has openly argued that the company should stay independent and “spread its wings.” But those with a Hollywood point of view are asking a different question: “What would The Jonas Brothers do?”
After all, Twitter’s founders have more in common with the Jonas boys than you would think.
It’s easy to forget that Twitter is at the concluding phases of a phenomenal rise. Spinning off from the struggling Odeo and surviving countless outages, it grew and picked up an unofficial corporate sponsor in CNN – whose eager Rick Sanchez couldn’t do enough to plug it, so they called in Ted Turner and Ashton Kutcher to mop up.
Could the buzz be more intense than it is right now? Probably not. There’s no steady term yet for it (tech-sation?), but we all know that web destinations can suddenly emulate flavor-of-the month entertainment acts or consumer goods. In these moments their technical product is less like Apple’s (a good buy at any time), and more like the Tamagotchi (an item everyone wants right now). After all, the public always needs something to toy with in the internet. This was as true for the early web game “Gay or Eurotrash?” as it was for MySpace, YouTube, and then Facebook. Twitter is the latest to get the call.
But one wonders whether the founders are thinking about this. Surely, they may be mulling over the usual venture-capital questions – whether the move would be accepted by users, whether they should explore new models . . . (insert drone here). My advice is to sweep it all aside. Twitter is at this point as subject to the laws of Hollywood as much as those of Silicon Valley. And those laws recommend only one thing – get while the getting is good.
So what would The Jonas Brothers do? If Disney comes knocking for a sequel that Jonas “3D Concert Experience” movie, their answer would simple. (Hell yes.) Similarly Hugh Jackman will do more “Wolverine” (and spinoffs), and Gary Coleman would take a reality show without even reading the premise. In Hollywood, you take every opportunity as it comes to sustain the momentum you have.
This isn’t a slight toward the long-term potential of Twitter, or even the Jonas boys. In entertainment, one can start off as a pop sensation and become a respected icon – The Beatles did it, and Madonna too. That said, few of us today are flocking to sold-out shows of, say, Hansen or Menudo. The public attention is fickle, and no matter how high you soar, it’s very rare to maintain your altitude.
Indeed even if Twitter is the tech equivalent of The Beatles – a legend in the making – public excitement still will never be quite as high as in these critical early days. As such, Twitter can exact an incomparable premium right now. Why? That same hype that drives the average user to try out Twitter for the first time also infects the most sober Director weighing how many millions to spend on it. That hype also makes it easier to push the deal past the inevitable naysayers within any acquiring organization. It worked with YouTube; it will work again.
But after the glow wears off, Twitter will fight tooth and nail for every additional dollar on an exit. Instead of going out on a high, Twitter could face a long and solitary road, much like Digg.
Twitter’s founders and backers may fail to see this. They may easily suffer from the Blindness of the Successful – when those who have won public favor attribute their good fortune entirely to their own efforts. If you got this far, why not keep it up? The validity of this logic has been shown in Oscar-winners who quit acting to start rap careers or rock bands. Indeed hopefully Twitter will remember Media Law No. 2: there’s always more to your success than your own talent – timing, herding of the masses, and a dose of dumb luck. Don’t forget it.
There is one critical difference in this analogy, though. Sensations like The Jonas Brothers can only grab at each consecutive deal, hoping to make the good times last. But Twitter will have only one deal, the exit. After that, their future may contain a gradual and dignified downward slope, a la Madonna, or a precipitous fall, a la Hansen.
Either way Hollywood recommends a single truth, one the founders of Twitter may find it hard to believe . . . it’s already later than you think.
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