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WE KNOW the equation. Pixar summer movie = smash hit. For the first time, we’re not sure. “Up” may at long last offer a Pixar movie that neither critics nor audiences love, at least all that much. Why? We don’t see that famous Pixar appeal to kids and parents alike. Where “Ratatouille” had the cooking and “Incredibles” had the dysfunctional family humor, “Up” presents us with … a crotchety old man who rigs balloons to his house and sails to The Land of the Lost. This occurs after (we easily forget) “Ratatouille” only opened to $47 million – nothing to sneeze at, but enough to prove the Pixar name doesn’t have the sure-fire earning power the Chattering Classes think. This said, our friend Katey at Cinema Blend is as bullish as ever after having seen parts of the film. Expect controversy in the Summer Movie Challenge as “Up” hits theaters in the last day of May.

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WE HAD HIGH hopes for “Better Off Ted,” offering both “Arrested Development” favorite Portia de Rossi and a darker, more corporate version of “The Office.” But the elements didn’t gel. Lead Jay Harrington plays an affably indifferent middle-manager – a believable coping strategy, given his job – who oversees the increasingly amoral research efforts of mega-conglomerate Veridian Dynamics. But where “The Office” (like another workplace comedy, “Cheers”) bunches everyone into a claustrophobic and dysfunctional microcosm, the characters of “Ted” are spread out over a massive company. As such, they don’t create a sense of ensemble – and ensembles are the root of all comedy. Kudos to the likeable Andrea Anders, who plays a love interest, along with a generally skilled cast. We hope to see them all again. But with 4.7 million for the latest episode, we don’t think it will be in a second season of “Ted.”

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A BIG PROBLEM with the trailer is, for the first 20 seconds, you actually think this is a dopey comedy (with talk of “Stew” getting the promotion over well-meaning Christine). And it also has Justin Long, Mr. Mac Guy! Then reality sets in: we have another teen horror film in which Hot Chick battles the Other World. Séances and special effects ensue. We know that Sam Raimi cut his teeth on the “Evil Dead” trilogy, but this guy did “Spiderman” – and he should be setting his sights higher than a summer genre flick. As with weekend competitor “Up” we’ll disagree on this one with our Cinema Blend buddies, who have given a 5 on the Excite-o-meter and who also quote a stellar review from Defamer. Tune into the Summer Movie Challenge to see the sparks fly.

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“PRIVILEGED” IS A LIKEABLE show, with a likeable lead in Joanna Garcia. That’s why we didn’t get it when The CW chopped the original order from 22 episodes to 18. We also don’t get it when sources report (according to EW.com) that the show is “definitely in danger.” Of course, The CW might have been disappointed by a show that only pulled 1.7 million viewers for its finale – but network execs also have to take into account the low profile of the network itself. Our recommendation: stick with quality and let the audience grow, rather than aiming for another “Gossip Girl” (which only nets 3 million anyway). We think a solid fanbase will raise enough of a stink to keep this one on the air – but look for Joanna Garcia to move onto to bigger and better after Season 2.

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Play the summer movie challenge! The makers of “Wolverine” got an unpleasant shock when a working print was leaked to the internet two weeks ago. According to one study, the video has already been downloaded one million times. But, folks, this is Hollywood – where there are usually surprises. Tracking reports are now suggesting that buzz has only grown for the film, as a result of free press and positive word-of-mouth from people who have seen it. You’re holding steady at $90 million in a weekend in which “Iron Man” cleared the century mark last year.

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IS IT CANCELED, OR NOT? That’s been the question of the week regarding “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.” First EW.com’s Mike Ausiello gave a dead-certain prediction that “TSCC” was on its way out. Insiders shot back that FOX executives were still making up their minds. Enough sources have chimed in with the latter view that we’ll believe that one, for now. (Was Ausiello fed dire news as a way of gauging fan support?) A pathetically small 4.6 million viewers tuned in for the finale – but then again FOX can’t expect miracles on Friday night, and Summer Glau is getting a lot of buzz as an upcoming star anyway. If “Terminator: Salvation” sets the world on fire this summer, perhaps “TSCC” will be back.

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INNOVTIVE SERIAL “HARPER’S ISLAND” should have had an easy ride following an episode of “CSI” that drew a whopping 16.7 million viewers. But only 10.2 million stuck around for the premiere, and the show lost viewers during the telecast. The initial falloff speaks to a lack of core interest (if you can’t lure “CSI” fans to a macabre thriller, who can you draw?). The subsequent loss speaks to some shaky writing (which Media Predict would have been happy to forecast, CBS). Moving ahead, this show will be difficult to fix, as it’s probably already in the can. Any re-editing hopefully will emphasize the ultra-attractive cast and the mystery storyline – as opposed to slasher killings, more graphic versions of which we can get in your average “Saw” film. As the plot becomes more complex, drawing in new viewers will be tricky, which is why we expect the last victim here to be the show itself. Sell.

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THE “CASTLE” DEBUT offered an offbeat premise (crime writer and hot cop team up to solve mysteries) accompanied by great one-liners, delivered by MP-favorite Nathan Fillion. But, to quote The Joker, why so serious? The pacing is often deliberate, and corpses are shown with the macabre gravitas of “CSI.” As we watched, we realized how badly we wished it was more like “Moonlighting” – manic, hilarious, and fun. As it is, “Castle” comes off as an often-bland mix of a crime procedural and “Remington Steele.” Post-premiere episodes have drawn just under 10 million viewers, even with the stellar lead in of “Dancing with the Stars,” so this is a tough call. We think the show will improve if it takes more risks – you’ve only got one shot anyway, guys – and we do think it can pick up steam with time. We think ABC execs will see it that way too. Buy.

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MEMORIAL DAY will be a barn-burner, with two long-awaited sequels “Terminator: Salvation” and “Night at the Museum 2” going head-to-head. While the grim “Terminator” will draw male audiences, “Night” promises to appeal to everyone else. Of course, you know what you’re getting with this one – special effects and slapstick chaos as museum pieces (this time at the Smithsonian) magically come to life. In a sequel twist, the mayhem spreads to the rest of D.C. itself, including The Mall. (Check out Abe Lincoln laying down the law at the end of the trailer. Awesome.) The always likeable Amy Adams, playing Amelia Earhart, will join Ben Stiller in a sequel that will blow away the $30 million opening of its predecessor.

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“LIFE” ONLY GRADUALLY won us over, and we give it credit for surviving the strike – and a brutal year when most of its sophomore siblings failed. But there’s not a lot to “Life.” To successfully pull off a Loner Drama along the lines of a “House” or a “Mentalist” you need damn good writers. That’s what these shows do: give us characters being smart. “Life” never really had that, and so it combined the Loner Drama with the Serial Drama, going back in time to chronicle the conspiracy behind the lead character’s wrongful imprisonment. Recently the series wrapped up with just an audience of just 4.5 million, not enough to cut it on NBC. We predict no more life for “Life.” 4/12/09.

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IT’S TOUGH TO SEE THE LOGIC behind releasing this movie in a prime weekend in early May. We’re all for providing balance against the popcorn flick of the week (in this case “Star Trek”). But while “Ghosts of Girlfriends Past” provides a good foil to “Wolverine,” this caper comedy targets the male audience most likely to be caught up in May-Mania. Don’t get us wrong – the trailer wasn’t all-bad, and anything with Donald Faison gets a look from us. Our friends at Cinema Blend give this one a middling score on their Excite-o-meter, and in the end we concur. With poor timing and disappointing revenues, “Next Day Air” will be forgotten as quickly as its title suggests.