“Move over Bourne,” trumpets the marketing for the Liam Neeson action thriller “Taken.” We’d never throw cold water on another badass-with-skills movie, but your $20m projections aren’t quite in the range of the latest Bourne’s $69m take in 2007. Moreover the critics weren’t smitten, giving it only a 52% so far at Rotten Tomatoes. Well, that’s 52 points higher than what they gave Renee Zellweger’s pre-Valentine’s Day date movie “New in Town” (ouch). Meanwhile horror flick “The Uninvited” follows up the recent and surprisingly successful “The Unborn” ($19m).

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It took some doing, but this film finally secured that Friday the 13th opening date (hence the late launch of this market). Emboldened by Rob Zombie’s surprisingly successful “Halloween” reboot, this film will try to inaugurate, we assume, a new series of sequels. We’re not so optimistic it will work. The return of “Halloween” and its creepy piano music was a welcome blast from the past. But Friday the 13th – a la Britney Spears or Sarah Palin – has always kept hanging around, what with is countless sequels and “Freddy v. Jason” spinoff. So this comeback isn’t really a comeback, just a re-tread. We see an opener in the teens.

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By our lights the Best Picture category pits “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – and its near-record 13 nominations – against the sleeper you predicted to win the Golden Globe, “Slumdog Millionaire.” Critically adored “Frost/Nixon” and “Milk” form a second tier, but in the unpredictable Oscars, they can’t be counted out. The only real outsider seems to be surprise nominee “The Reader,” taking a spot that many (as we did) thought would be filled by “Gran Torino.” In the end, MP predicted four of the five nominees. So we’ll toss out our recommendations, step aside, and let you guys call it right – as you so often do.

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Best Actor is really tough. Hollywood likes to reward its box office earners when they take time off for a quality film, so Brad Pitt seems more than ripe to win. The problem is the competition. The voters can also be suckers for underdogs, comebacks, and great stories, all of which plays into the resurrection of Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler.” And then there’s the small problem of simply lights-out acting by Sean Penn in “Milk” and Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon.” We’ll count out Richard Jenkins of “The Visitor,” but after that, we’re looking at yet another close race in a night full of them.

Best Actress isn’t quite the barn burner we’ll see for Best Actor, but it’s a tough call nonetheless. People everywhere are scratching their heads at the Best-Picture nomination of “The Reader” – really we just take it to mean that Golden-Globe winner Kate Winslet kicked so much ass that one nomination for acting just wasn’t enough. So she’s our pick. After that, it seems a dead heat of longtime achievers whom the Academy would like to reward for great careers – Anne Hathaway, Meryl Streep, and Angelina Jolie. That leaves Melissa Leo of “Frozen River” on the outside looking in against some very tough competition.

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In a night of close races, we really can’t see this as anything but a slam dunk. No – it’s not because Heath Ledger died. It’s because his performance as The Joker in “The Dark Knight” was some of the very best stuff we’ve seen in a popcorn film, well, ever. So the only question in our minds is who will accept his posthumous award. Elsewhere, we see Josh Brolin getting nominated for his second-best performance of the year (see “W” instead). The same thing goes for Robert Downey Jr. (“Iron Man”), and Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Synecdoche, New York”). Kudos to Michael Shannon for a nod. But he like the rest will step aside as The Academy puts the concluding note on Heath Ledger’s too-short career.

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This one is a smoker, folks. In a photo-finish that will rival the Best Actor race, we can see at least three potential winners in here. We’ll set aside Taraji P. Henson for the much-nominated “Benjamin Button” (the Academy will want to spread the wealth). Viola Davis was great in “Doubt,” but we see Amy Adams hogging the vote for that film. So it comes down to Adams, Penelope Cruz, and Marisa Tomei. Too close to call? We have a hunch that the under-exposed “Wrestler” will have enough legs to peak right when the Oscar votes are being cast. Timing is everything, folks. Marisa Tomei will carry away her second Supporting Actress trophy and deliver a decisive pile-driver to critics of her up-and-down career.

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If you don’t know it already: this guy kicks ass. No one working in media today has his finger on his target audience like Tyler Perry – and he dials into it again and again. While there’s no blockbuster in the list, it’s hard not to be impressed with the run he’s had over a scant two years, including “The Family That Preys” ($17m debut), “Meet the Browns” ($20m), “Why Did I Get Married” ($21m), and “Madea’s Family Reunion.” Did we mention he’s also starting a sit-com spinoff to his successful “House of Payne”? Our only question is whether the latest “Madea” will perform like the rest – or if Perry-mania will catch hold in the form of a sleeper hit. Either way, buy as quickly as you can after this one launches.

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Trivia: “Paper Planes” was around for a long time before finally breaking out, in part due to inclusion in the film “Pineapple Express.” Moreover the music is almost entirely lifted from the Clash song “Straight to Hell.” Nevertheless M.I.A. was undoubtedly all the rage in 2008, and as such is a likely frontrunner for Record of the Year. Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida” seemingly runs a close second, with Adele, Leona Lewis, and Robert Plant and Alison Krauss bringing up the rear. We’re going to bet that sheer fatigue will drive voters from M.I.A. – leaving either Coldplay or Plant and Kraus to pull the shocker of the night.

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As usual, the Album of the Year nominees present a diverse field – making it tough to peg an early winner. Surely Radiohead continues to impress, but “In Rainbows” wasn’t enough of a hit to bring them back to the podium. Lil Wayne offered a mass-market smash, but whether he’ll impress industry voters is another question (same with Ne-Yo). Conversely Robert Plant and Alison Krauss have quality written all over them, but not much pizzazz. Our pick? Coldplay offers just the mix of huge pop culture impact along with enough well-written music to please the snobs. Buy here, hedge with Lil Wayne, and sell the rest.

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Often more buzzed about than the big-fish awards “Record of the Year” and “Album of the Year,” the best new artist category has been the launch pad for artists such as Amy Winehouse, Carrie Underwood, and Christina Aguilera. It also launched Arrested Development, Milli Vanilli, and Men at Work. (“We are the Men, and we’ll be back again.” Yeah: didn’t happen.) We think the Jonas Brothers are the favorite to win – and if so, we might have another famous bust. However Duffy could very well sneak in, and we think she’ll be around for a while. Our advice: bet on these two in one of the closest races of the night.

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The field is shaping up in this year’s Oscar derby for Best Picture nominations. Indie sleeper “Slumdog Millionaire” has pulled ahead. Meanwhile “Gran Torino,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” and “Benjamin Button” close behind. Further back are “Revolutionary Road” and “The Dark Knight.” The shocker of them all? Critically praised “Doubt,” based on a Pulitzer-Prize winning play and starring Philip Seymour Hoffman and Meryl Streep, seems ready to be left out in the cold.