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“Inkheart” presents a serious version of “Bedtime Stories”: Dad reads book, things in the book start happening in real life, story ensues. Only instead of Adam Sandler hamming it up, “Inkheart” gives us the usual Brendan-Fraser adventure and suspense. Sounds fine. So why did “Bedtime” ($27m) get a plumb Christmas opener, and why is “Inkheart” sunk at the end of January? One might be tempted to say that “Inkheart” failed to win the confidence of the studio. But the trailer reveals high production values, a complex story, and some smart references to children’s lit. We’re into it. The problem is that the children’s market lately has been rewarding dumb ($29m for “Beverly Hills Chihuahua”) and punishing smart ($10m for “Tale of Despereaux”). So the ink on this one will be red: expect low teens, if that.

SEE THE “WATCHMEN” MARKET

2008 has gone out with a bang with sleeper surprise “Marley and Me,” which opened to $51 million last weekend. For 2009, look ahead to a serious movie onslaught, as escapism will sell in a down economy. Look for “Watchmen” to be the big release of the spring, opening in the same overlooked weekend in which “300” became a sleeper hit. Next summer, the “Harry Potter,” “Star Trek,” and “Terminator” franchises all return to the big screen.

Early trading for “Watchmen” predicts a premiere in the high $60 million range, with next summer’s “Star Trek” only a few million behind. “Terminator” projections are hovering just below $80 million, with “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” looking to rule them all with an $80-million-plus opener. Trading is early, so get your bets in today. See most active markets.

SEE THE MARKET FOR “POSSESSION”

In “Posession” time Sarah Michelle Gellar delivers less of a Japanese teen-horror flick – as she did in “The Grudge” – and more of a supernatural thriller, along the lines of Jessica Alba’s “The Eye.” The premise: beloved boyfriend and hated boyfriend’s brother “switch souls” when both are in a horrible car accident. Gellar’s character gets to sort it all out. To be sure, the will have the required exorcism, but the trailer seems flat, and the premise won’t hook die-hard genre fans. Expect a low opener just breaking double digits, if that much.

SEE THE MARKET FOR “HOTEL FOR DOGS”

After “Marley and Me” provided the surprise of 2008 by turning in a whopping $51 million opener (don’t say we didn’t tell you),  we’re not going to bet against dog movies. That said, where “Marley and Me” targeted an underserved market of adult dog-lovers, “Hotel for Dogs” joins ample kids dog-films including the animated “Bolt” ($26m) and the live-action “Beverly Hills Chihuahua.” Given that it was passed over for a holiday release, we don’t expect a lot from this fanciful tale, in which kids take over an abandoned hotel to house the city’s strays. Single digits? It’s entirely possible this one, like “Posession,” might go to the dogs.

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This film will answer a question contemporary philosophers have wrestled with in recent years: do we actually like “Underworld,” or we do just like Kate Beckinsale in fangs and leather? Now we’ll find out. Producers of this prequel have taken the audacious step of leaving Beckinsale out of this gore-action thriller (which like the others pits vampires against werewolves in an age-old blood feud). Instead, we’ll get lookalike Rhona Mitra, recently seen in the disappointing “Doomsday” ($4.9m). A blatant attempt to set up an “Underworld 4”? We think so. The gamble might backfire, but look for strong special effects and Lord-of-the-Rings battle sequences to keep this one in the same range as its predecessors.

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“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” is now in theaters, but the betting goes on at MP. In our tightest race for the Golden Globes, “Button” is in a dead heat with “Frost/Nixon” for Best Drama. Call us cynical, but we suspect journalist voters might pick a film glorifying their profession over a special-effects weepie with A-list stars. (Not that Frank Langella and Co. don’t deserve it.) Elsewhere expect slam dunks for “Mad Men,” “30 Rock,” and “Mamma Mia!”