Scenario: If you can find time away from other work – and if you can afford the meager development costs – then you have time to pursue your creative vision, with hopes of wild riches and fortune.

Question: are we talking web startups or garage bands?

With each passing day, Web 2.0 looks less like a traditional industry, in which services or widgets (the old kind) are sold for profit. Rather, it resembles something vaguely like Hollywood. Keep it up, and you’ll see that this Rorschach Test keeps showing the same monster with a different name:

• This industry features vast numbers of candidate projects, produced at a grass-roots level and almost always initially financed by the creators themselves. Are we talking about indie films shot on video – or the latest Facebook App?
• This industry is characterized by fierce competition for recognition, in which middlemen select – from myriad prototypes – a small number of candidates for funding and promotion. Are we talking about A&R Reps and television producers – or angels and VCs?
• In this industry, ideas are easily stolen or imitated, so easily that often we see three or four similarly themed projects in the pipeline at once. Are we talking about this year’s smackdown between ‘Cashmere Mafia’ and ‘Lipstick Jungle’ – or Twitter and Pownce?

The conclusion: if you’re curious about the future of Web 2.0, you might want to ring up your out-of-work actor friends and get a crash course in Entertainment Industry 101. Once every college had its own slate of campus bands, chasing the dream. Soon each one will have a handful of web startups as well.

Some lessons we can learn from the comparison:

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In case you spent the Memorial Day weekend completely shut off from the outside world, “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” made $126 million at the box office from Friday to Monday. “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” limped to 2nd with $28.6 million, “Iron Man” was 3rd with $25.7 million, “What Happens in Vegas” 4th with $11.2 million and “Speed Racer” 5th with an anemic $5.2 million.

“American Idol” (you guessed it) obliterated the competition to take the top two spots in the Nielsen ratings. (Congratulations on spotting David Cook as the winner weeks and weeks ago.) In other news, “CSI” snuck ahead of the “Dancing With the Stars” results show for the No. 4 spot.

Death Cab for Cutie debuted in the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 with their critically-acclaimed new album “Narrow Stairs.” Frank Sinatra, Jason Mraz, and Duffy, all also with albums in their first week on the charts, were Nos. 2-4, followed by Leona Lewis and Mariah Carey.

James Frey made his first appearance on the NYT fiction list at No. 9 with his widely-praised “debut” novel, “Bright Shiny Morning.” Barbara Walters remained atop the NYT non-fiction list.

“The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” raked $56.6 million in its opening weekend. It was enough to unseat “Iron Man” from its perch atop the box office mountain, although the comic-book film still brought in $31.2 million, bringing its 3-week total to an impressive $222 million. “What Happens in Vegas” made a strong $13.9 million in it second week out, and “Speed Racer” ($7.6 million) continued to disappoint.

In television, America is still fond of “American Idol” and “Dancing With the Stars,” both concluding this week. Nielsen ratings are here.

Neil Diamond sits atop the Billboard 200 and the UK charts for the first time, well, ever. Toby Keith’s “35 Biggest Hits” debuted at No. 2, followed by Madonna, Clay Aiken and Mariah Carey. Leona Lewis fell one spot to No. 6. The rest of the top 10 consisted of albums in their first week on the chart by, respectively, Gavin DeGraw, Josh Groban, Dierks Bentley, and Luis Miguel.

Barbara Walters’ relentlessness in hawking her new book, “Audition,” has paid off in the form of the top spot on the New York Times bestseller list. The only other new entrants on the non-fiction side are Carl Hiassen’s “The Downhill Lie” and “The Chris Farley Show,” a biography by the late comic’s brother. Stephanie Meyer and James Patterson are running 1-2 on the fiction list.

FOX, fashionably late to the upfronts this year, released their 2008-9 schedule yesterday.

Back are “Terminator: the Sarah Connor Chronicles” and “Prison Break” (as you predictied). “The Moment of Truth” returns as well. But apparently we’ve seen the last of “Back to You,” “Canterbury’s Law,” “K-Ville,” “New Amsterdam,” “The Return of Jezebel James,” and “Unhitched.”

FOX execs are hoping the new J.J. Abrams show “Fringe” – one of only two new shows set to debut in the fall – is more “Lost” than “Six Degrees.” Joss Whedon of “Buffy” fame offers “Dollhouse,” which will hit the small screen early in ’09.

Not long ago Media Predict users generated perfect forcasts for television cancellations for the fall season. Our users were perfect in the spring too, recording 100% accuracy in markets forecasting whether bubble shows would survive. See a full listing of television markets.  

Over at ABC, living to see another day are “Boston Legal,” “Eli Stone,” and “Dirty Sexy Money.” “Scrubs” will make the switch to ABC after NBC declined to renew it. New shows include “Life on Mars” (in the plush post-“Grey’s Anatomy” time slot) and “Opportunity Knocks,” a reality game show from Ashton Kutcher. Here is ABC’s complete fall schedule.

“Moonlight” got the axe from CBS (no thanks to “Jericho,” another show with a small but rabid fan base that underperformed after execs renewed it for a second season). There are already rumors that Mick St. John will find his way to the CW, however, so “Moonlight” fans shouldn’t despair just yet. Returning shows on CBS include “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” “How I Met Your Mother,” “The Big Bang Theory,” and “Two and a Half Men.” A minute-by-minute breakdown of the CBS presentation can be found here.

NBC allegedly attempted to kill the upfronts by announcing their fall schedule last month. In case you missed it then, check out this recap of NBC’s fall/winter schedule. Highlights include “Knight Rider” and a spin-off of “The Office.”

 FOX will announce their fall line-up tomorrow. Check back then to find out what shows will flank “American Idol.”

Robert Downey Jr. and “Iron Man” once again reigned supreme in its second week at the weekend box office, trouncing a dismal “Speed Racer” by more than $30 million. “Iron Man” took in $50.5 million after its opening weekend of $100.8 million. “Speed Racer” ($20.2 million) barely edged “What Happens in Vegas” ($20 million), with “Made of Honor” ($7.6 million) and “Baby Mama” ($5.8 million) filling out the top 5.

Madonna bumped Mariah from the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200. Unfortunately for Madge, a German techno band called Scooter unseated her from the top of the UK charts. Leona Lewis drops to third, followed by chart newcomers Lyfe Jennings, Def Leppard, the Roots, Portishead, and Mudcrutch.

Nielsen ratings for the week of April 28 can be found here. When something other than “American Idol” or “Dancing With the Stars” occupies spots 1-4, we’ll let you know.

Ron Paul’s “The Revolution” finally hit the top spot on the NYT non-fiction list in its second week out, followed by the latest “memoir” from Augusten Burroughs. Also on the non-fiction list: Cokie Roberts, Jimmy Carter, Fareed Zakaria, and Sidney Poitier. Hard as it is to believe, James Patterson has a new book out, and it tops this week’s fiction list.

In case you haven’t heard (or didn’t see it this weekend) Robert Downey Jr. and Jon Favreau scored a monster hit with “Iron Man.” The first flick that Marvel has bankrolled far exceeded anyone’s expectations by pulling in a reported $104 million since its late Thursday debut. “Made of Honor” ($15.5 million), “Baby Mama” ($10.3 million), “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” ($6.1 million), and “Harold and Kumar…” ($6 million) rounded out the top 5.

Elsewhere, “American Idol” was the most watched show in America – two times over – for the umpteenth week in a row. “Dancing With the Stars” ran a close 3rd and 4th. “Grey’s Anatomy,” “CSI,” and “Desperate Housewives” all pulled in more than 17 million viewers apiece.

Mimi reigns supreme on the Billboard 200 once again. Leona Lewis holds firm at No. 2, followed by Flight of the Conchords, Ashlee Simpson with “Bittersweet World,” and Atmosphere with “When Life Gives You Lemons, You Paint That Shit Gold.”

Chelsea Handler, a noted triple threat, can add NYT No. 1 best-selling author to her resume with “Are You There, Vodka? It’s Me, Chelsea.” Despite frantic efforts by his supporters to get it to the top of the list, Ron Paul’s “The Revolution” hit the list only at No. 7. David Baldacci’s “The Whole Truth” shoots to the top of the NYT fiction list in its first week out, bumping Harlan Coben’s “Hold Tight” from the top spot. Iris Johansen, Stuart Woods and Amanda Quick also debuted in the top 15.