As the writers’ strike drags much of television and film to a halt, viewers might begin looking for alternatives in the coming weeks. But they probably won’t look to what was supposed to shake up the media world forever, “user-generated content.” Indeed this once-magical concept has seemingly gone the way of the Tamagotchi and Zoomba Pants.

Of course, a year ago some bloggers were certain of the opposite. With the growth of MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube, users would take control of “old media.” Via new distribution platforms – video-sharing sites and blogs – freelance content producers would address audiences directly, delivering the original, uninhibited content that people really desired. And “old media” would suffer because of it.

But ask your friends what they’ll do when the strike causes new episodes of, say, “Gossip Girl” to run dry. Chances are they won’t turn to “The Halls” – a similarly themed, once-viral soap produced by Columbia students last year. Rather they’ll ride out the storm by downloading those Showtime shows they heard about but never saw – or renewing that Netflix subscription once again.

Indeed, far from presenting any threat to traditional media, user-generated content has only expanded it. After all, if there’s one law in the history of media, it’s a relentless drive toward diversity. Home video didn’t drive out movie theaters – instead the entire industry grew. Cable didn’t drive out network TV. Simply, we’ll take content in whatever manner and setting we can get it, and there’s no end to that tendency in sight.

From that view, the user-generated movement has merely created new genres – blogs, social networking pages, and short-form video (from Rocketboom to Parkour videos). But did it steal attention from anyone? User-generated content may grow popular on non-traditional platforms (viral videos on YouTube), but these easily bleed over into old ones (the same videos being aired on CNN). As soon as they’re able, unsigned MySpace bands turn to major labels and appear on “American Idol.” Conversely, some of the most popular content on user-generated platforms – e.g. the Saturday Night Live spoof songs – came from traditional companies. Like a mysterious cartoon beast, old media absorbs every blow it receives and only gets stronger.

No: the chief effect of the user-generated movement has rather been more muted, although unquestionably beneficent: it gives old media much-needed alternatives for selecting content.

As we so often note at Media Predict, content decisions have historically rested in the hands of select individuals – who unfortunately have an exaggerated confidence in their own tastes. Year in and year out, in media less than 10 percent of the product line generates 90 percent or more of revenue. Year in and year out, elite tastemakers simply can’t consistently predict what will work with millions of consumers – no more than they can levitate or perform telekinesis.

But user-generated communities provide an alternative: an empirical testing ground. “If x worked on the internet,” we can begin to say, “don’t mess with it. Just get it out.” That strategy worked for Colbie Caillat – whose MySpace tracks were quickly repackaged and sold by Universal, and out of nowhere debuted in the Billboard top five. And the strategy will work again.

For user-generated content to increase its impact on old media, however, its indicators will have to improve. When she was signed, Colbie Caillat had roughly the same number of monthly plays as Jeffree Star, a transvestite shock-rapper who probably wouldn’t appeal to soccer moms in Kansas. Similarly “Snakes on a Plane” had unprecedented internet buzz – until it was released, at which point everyone forgot it.
 
So when it comes to repackaging user-generated content for the mainstream, old media needs new ways to read the tea leaves. Media Predict, clearly, seeks to provide that accurate indicator – and in light of twenty years of evidence supporting the overwhelming power of prediction markets, no other tool promises to meet the task quite so well.